New data shows a surprising demographic has joined California’s exodus
California has experienced several years of population decline since the onset of the pandemic, with residents of lower incomes and education levels being the most likely to leave the state.
But an analysis of recently-released census data by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, shows that even among Californians with graduate or professional degrees, more are leaving the state than entering. Between 2021 and 2022, about 91,000 people with advanced degrees moved into the state, while about 100,000 left, resulting in a net population loss of nearly 9,000. Just five years ago, this group was more likely to move into the state than leave. The data does not include trends among international migrants.
International migration to California also plummeted during the pandemic, but the numbers returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, according to Frey’s analysis. Almost 200,000 international migrants came to the state in 2022, a little over a quarter of whom had graduate degrees. That is similar to the numbers in 2018.
The net loss of 9,000 residents with advanced degrees from domestic migration represents a 0.2% decrease in this subgroup’s overall population, which is the smallest percentage loss compared to other education-level groups. The biggest loss was among people with some college or an associate’s degree (-1.3% between 2021 and 2022).
The population loss of highly-educated residents in 2022 was less severe than that between 2020 and 2021, when the state had a net loss of about 30,000 people with graduate or professional degrees.
The number of people with advanced degrees entering the state rebounded in 2022 compared to 2021, even surpassing 2018 in-migration numbers. And outmigration within this subgroup has slightly decreased, but still remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, which is why net migration among this group still remains negative.
While California’s high living costs have historically disproportionately affected the migration choices of residents with lower incomes and lower levels of education, it has become a factor among high-income residents as well. Now that many white-collar professionals can work remotely, they are also opting to relocate to more affordable areas.
Those who leave the state often cite the inability to buy a home in California as the primary reason for leaving. According to the Census’ Current Population Survey, about half of those leaving the state buy a house in their new location.
Politics could be another reason for leaving, with conservatives saying they are much more likely than liberals to consider moving out of the state.