Raialyoum

What are the reasons that forced Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire in Gaza?

How will the scene look after the "Sharm El-Sheikh wedding" ends and Trump does not win the Nobel Prize? Here are the expected scenarios


The real reason that led to the ceasefire, the partial withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, and the release of both living prisoners and corpses can be summarised in the "golden phrase" uttered by Donald Trump, the American president, in his last press conference: "I told Netanyahu that Israel cannot fight the entire world that has come to stand against it."

This is a clear admission, from the leader of the greatest nation in the world, that Israel no longer possesses the strength to engage in and continue this war and that its allies in the West, led by America, cannot fight and defend it against the entire world.

The war against the entire world, politically, militarily, and economically, is not like the war against a besieged resistance faction confined to an area (Gaza) no larger than 365 square kilometres, with no forests or mountains, but rather a mass of human flesh consisting of 2.5 million people, most of whom are children, women, and the elderly, and the descendants of those forcibly displaced from the cities and villages of southern occupied Palestine, including my family.

"Israel" fought a war for two years against a poorly armed adversary, but one with strong will, whose leaders possess innate cunning and deep faith in their doctrine, cause, and roots that extend thousands of years in the region's land, unlike their enemy. Therefore, it did not win this war. It may have achieved some military victories, but it was politically defeated (a global loss), alongside its military losses in the human and intelligence fields in particular. We are talking here about the aftermath of the "Al-Aqsa Flood", whose celebrations are still ongoing as it enters its third year.

If we accept the almost unanimous description that Netanyahu's eternal goal is to remain in power for as long as possible, does his acceptance of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, which was sponsored, or rather imposed, by President Trump, achieve this goal for him?

It might be too early to give a definitive answer to this question, especially now, as the agreement is still "in its infancy" and in its early days, and its core decision, which is the release of prisoners from both sides, has not yet been implemented. However, what can be said, and many in his camp avoid acknowledging, is that several reasons forced Netanyahu to accept the first phase of the agreement and implement it so quickly:

First: Netanyahu wants some time to catch his breath and strengthen his internal political and military front after the significant losses he has suffered.

Secondly, formulating a precise strategy to regain control over Trump and his government, redirecting their compass, and attempting to devise a new plan to break the international isolation, while avoiding the implementation of the International Criminal Court's decisions that condemned him as a war criminal.

Thirdly: Achieving at least one military victory on the seven fronts he claims to be fighting simultaneously, the most notable of which is the Yemeni front, where its missiles and drones have never stopped, and four aggressions have failed to halt them, along with Iran's refusal to succumb to American threats, attacks, sanctions, and blockades.

Fourth: The aggression against Lebanon has failed to neutralise the threat of "Hezbollah" and disarm it of both heavy and light weapons. There are reports about the new leadership of the party soon adopting a new strategy to respond to the almost daily Israeli attacks and regaining its capabilities to manufacture new, precise missiles and drones.

Fifth: The project to overthrow the Assad Syrian regime and transform the country into a striking arm in Lebanon alongside its government and army for the Lebanese Islamic resistance has failed, as has the complete closure of borders to prevent arms smuggling and missile technology and the establishment of a national Syrian resistance front against the "masked" Israeli occupation of southern Syria.

Sixth: The resistance movement in the Gaza Strip, represented by both Hamas's Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades and the Islamic Jihad's Al-Quds Brigades, remains intact and is expanding. The impact of Israeli strikes to weaken or perhaps eliminate it is still limited. Rockets are being manufactured and launched from beneath the rubble toward settlements, and the Yassin missiles continue to target Israeli tanks and troop carriers effectively. The number of its operatives is terrifyingly increasing as the war drags on, with weapons hidden under the rubble of every house, in every tent, and in every tunnel in the Strip, making their removal nearly impossible.

In the coming days, we will witness live broadcasts of raucous celebrations, with a grand gathering of leaders in their most elegant attire, and dozens of shots of hugs and kisses. However, the most important event will come the day after the festivities end and the birds return to their nests, or rather, to their palaces.

Let's explain further and say what will happen after the return of the Israeli prisoners to Tel Aviv. Will there be a second phase, and then a third? And will Trump continue his efforts to complete the "peace" process and ceasefire after failing to win the Nobel Prize and achieve his greatest dream? And will the most important step, which is disarming the resistance, be taken? And finally, will negotiations and mediators return, and how long will it take?

We do not want to give hasty answers to complex issues, which will become even more complicated in the coming days in light of the new and different upcoming scene. When we reach that bridge, we will cross it, as the English proverb says. What we can conclude is that the coming days require caution from the resistance brigades, for the enemy is treacherous, and the American president and his government are the most complicit and conspiratorial with the occupying state and the war of extermination. There may not be a second or third phase, or even a continuation of the ceasefire and the flow of aid. This does not mean that the crisis will ease, but rather that it will become more complicated. What is certain is that the resistance will continue and will extend to the West Bank, and the Yemeni support model will be repeated on other fronts... And the days are ahead of us.