Welcome to the December 2019 Crypto Outlook with Contentworks, an agency specialising in content marketing for financial services, crypto and blockchain. It’s the most wonderful time of the year for many, but will the price of Bitcoin fill traders with festive cheer, or leave them out in the cold? Let’s find out.

Bitcoin had a rough month in November. Its price declined by 17%. In total, the currency has dropped by 21% over the past three months although it has gained by more than 90% year-to-date. This means that it has outperformed stocks and gold. The S&P 500 and the Dow have gained by 25% and 20% respectively while gold has gained by just 14%. The recent decline came as sentiment shifted from volatile assets like crypto and moved to stocks as the market continued to hope that a trade deal between the United States and China will be sealed. That has not happened, seven weeks after the two countries talked about the first phase of the deal.

The price of Bitcoin also dropped as China started to crackdown against unregulated cryptocurrencies in the country. This led to the closure of cryptocurrency exchanges. The crackdown was the biggest cleanup exercise after the one done in 2017 when the price of cryptocurrencies was surging. The latest crackdown is also important because of how important Asia is to the world of cryptocurrencies. According to Chainalysis, 20 of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges are located in Asia. In addition, 40% of all crypto transactions happen in Asia. Also, the market received reports that the CEO of a little-known exchange known as IDAX had gone missing. This means that its users had lost an unknown amount of money.

However, it is still incredibly difficult to ban cryptocurrencies as this could lead to a thriving underground industry. Instead, governments should put in place meaningful regulations. Therefore, the market will continue to pay close attention to China in December to see what happens.

The market will also focus on North Korea. In November, it was reported that the country was developing its own digital currency. Unlike the Chinese digital yuan, North Korean officials said that the currency will be more like Bitcoin. The digital yuan will be a normal currency but in digital format. It will be monitored and controlled by the PBOC. Meanwhile, North Korea’s currency will be a real cryptocurrency that will be mined by users from around the world. The country, which hosted a blockchain summit in April, hopes that its currency will help it get around the crippling sanctions placed by the United States. Talks between Kim and Trump appear to have been unsuccessful. In recent years, isolated countries like Iran and Venezuela have turned to crypto to do business.

A look at the Bitcoin chart shows that it’s likely the price could recover in December. Firstly, the BTC/USD chart has reached a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level on the 52-week chart shown below. This is usually an indication that prices could recover. Secondly, the price of Bitcoin has historically risen in December. It reached an all-time high in December 2017 and this year’s rally started in December. Finally, the market is still thinking of halving, which will happen in April next year. This halving could lead to a significant rally. We saw that earlier this year with Litecoin.

The market will also be watching a number of events this month. The most important ones will be the World Blockchain Summit in Bangkok, Elev8Con in Las Vegas, and the Blockchain Innovation and Investment Summit in Dubai.

At Contentworks, our team of financial professionals closely follows market movements for FX, Crypto and other tradable instruments. We are proud to serve some of the biggest crypto and fintech companies in the world by delivering high-impact articles, videos, PR and white papers. 

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