The chance that Hurricane Beryl could come ashore in deep South Texas is becoming more of a reality now. 

Earlier this week, the National Hurricane Center had been forecasting that Beryl would most likely make landfall on the northeast coast of Mexico, but as the most recent model data has come in, Beryl’s projected path is shifting north and placing the storm on a collision course with the southern Texas Gulf Coast. Here’s what the latest information says.

What’s the latest on Beryl?

Beryl made landfall along the Caribbean side of the Yucatan Peninsula at 5:05 a.m. as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph. The storm has been weakening from interaction with land. As of 10 a.m., Beryl has weakened to a Category 1 storm with 85-mph winds.

STORM AND FLOOD TRACKER: Keep an eye on storms and flooding across South Texas and the rest of the Lone Star State

Beryl is expected to continue weakening into a tropical storm by Friday afternoon. The storm will move back over the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, moving northwest toward the Gulf coasts of Texas and Mexico.

Beryl’s new forecast track

Beryl is expected to remain a tropical storm for much of Saturday as it moves through the southern Gulf of Mexico. On Sunday, more significant strengthening is expected as Beryl becomes better organized and starts its northward curve toward Texas.

After days of poor weather model agreement, several models are starting to come together on a possible landfall location for Beryl. As of Friday morning, the American GFS and European ECMWF weather models both projected a landfall within 100 miles of Corpus Christi.

The “spaghetti plot” for Beryl shows many weather forecast models are now predicting a South Texas landfall.

With three days still to go until landfall, another shift north or south along the Texas coast is still possible. Anywhere from Brownsville to Galveston and Houston needs to be on high alert, monitoring forecast updates over the next couple of days.

As for timing, Beryl is expected to start moving more slowly as it curves northward along the Texas coastline. Because of that, Beryl could make landfall slightly later than previously expected. The current information suggests a landfall between 3 a.m. and 3 p.m. Monday is most likely. If the path shifts even farther east, landfall could happen even later.

How strong will Beryl be?

The latest National Hurricane Center update expected Beryl to strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph before landfall.

However, the new eastward shift in Beryl’s track will put the storm over the exceptionally warm waters of the  Gulf of Mexico. That means Beryl could strengthen more than currently projected, possibly into a Category 2 storm by landfall.

Beryl’s latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, as of 10 a.m. Friday shows a northerly path leading to Texas.

The estimated intensity will become clearer after Beryl moves back into the Gulf later Friday night. Forecasters then will be able to determine how much weaker Beryl got over the Yucatan Peninsula. Either way, damaging winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will be possible along the Texas coastline.

Rainfall: We’re starting to get a better idea of how much rain Beryl could bring. The National Blend of Models shows that an area of 4 to 7 inches of rain is expected along the Texas Gulf Coast, from Corpus Christi to Port Lavaca. Areas farther east, including Galveston and Houston, could experience similar rainfall totals through the middle of the week.

Farther inland, more uncertainty remains. San Antonio could see several inches of rain and flooding if Beryl makes landfall near Corpus Christi. However, if the storm shifts farther east, rainfall totals in San Antonio would be lower.

Wind speeds: Damaging winds are expected along the coast, especially where Beryl makes landfall. Beryl’s eye could bring wind gusts up to or over 100 mph. Tropical storm-force winds stronger than 40 mph could extend upwards of 60 miles outside of Beryl’s center. Wind speeds will decrease significantly as Beryl moves inland.

Storm surge: Beryl is expected to cause water levels to rise by several feet along the Texas coastline, especially between Corpus Christi and Galveston. This could cause devastating coastal flooding for some Texas communities. Stay tuned for more precise forecasts for where storm surge will be greatest.
(Photo caption: Waves crash ashore as Hurricane Beryl passes through Kingston, Jamaica, on July 3. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)